The expected population of Dholera is around 20 lakh people by 2040, as per official master planning documents. In the long term, planners believe it can grow even beyond that if industries and jobs expand as planned.
1. What official plans say
If you study the master plan of Dholera Special Investment Region under the Delhi Mumbai Industrial Corridor, the city is designed for a very large future population.
• Phase 1 planning talks about around 3 to 5 lakh people in the early development stage
• Full development target goes up to around 20 lakh people
• Some projections even mention the possibility of 25 lakh if all industrial zones become active
This is not a small town plan. It is built like a completely new city from scratch.
The authority behind this planning is the Dholera Special Investment Region Development Authority, often referred to as DSIR. Their land use map clearly shows residential zones, commercial zones, and industrial clusters designed to handle millions of people.
2. Why such a big number
Many people ask me this when I meet investors in Ahmedabad. They say, right now Dholera looks empty. So how can 20 lakh people live there?
The answer is simple.
The population depends on jobs.
• Large industrial area planned
• Electronics manufacturing zone
• Defense and aerospace companies expected
• Nearby international airport
• Expressway connectivity
If industries come, workers will come. If workers come, families come. Then schools, hospitals, malls follow.
Population growth does not happen first. Jobs happen first.
3. Current reality on ground
Let me be honest.
Right now, Dholera does not have lakhs of people living there. It is still developing. Infrastructure like roads, underground drainage, water pipelines, and power systems are being built in the Activation Area.
When I visited the site last year, I saw wide roads but very limited residential activity. It felt more like a future city blueprint than a living city.
So when someone says 20 lakh population, understand that this is a long term projection, not today’s number.
4. Timeline matters
Population growth will likely happen in stages.
• 2025 to 2030 early industrial workers
• 2030 to 2035 mid level expansion
• 2035 to 2040 major growth phase
If the industrial corridor under Delhi Mumbai Industrial Corridor grows strongly, Dholera’s population target becomes realistic.
If industrial demand slows down, growth will be slower.
5. My practical view as a real estate analyst
After studying the project for years, here is my honest opinion.
• 20 lakh population is possible
• But it is not guaranteed
• It depends fully on economic activity
• It will take patience
I have seen similar examples in Gujarat where industrial towns grew fast once factories started. But I have also seen planned townships struggle when jobs did not arrive.
Dholera is a long term story. Not a quick flip project.
